This Monday marks a pivotal moment for international diplomacy as nearly half of the German federal cabinet travels to Lower Saxony to meet with their Brazilian counterparts, the partner country of the Hannover Messe. The high-profile visit by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, accompanied by a large delegation, underscores the burgeoning strategic importance of Brazil for Germany, perhaps more than ever before. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) aims to mend diplomatic fences after a previous gaffe, highlighting the seriousness with which Berlin views this relationship. The timing, with Brazil as the Hannover Messe’s partner, feels serendipitous; the agreement was made two years ago, long before the current global uncertainties, from American protectionism to potential energy crises, turned Brazil into a perceived beacon of stability, a democracy with open markets.
The extensive reception for the left-leaning Lula by the conservative Merz signals a deep commitment. It includes military honors, a private discussion, a joint tour of the Messe, followed by high-level government consultations at Schloss Herrenhausen, complete with a celebratory lunch. Eight German cabinet members are joined by a similar number from Brasília, indicating the breadth of topics on the agenda. Beyond the volatile global situation, both nations share a keen interest in reforming the United Nations, particularly advocating for a permanent seat on the Security Council, where mutual support can be instrumental. Lula, much like the EU and Germany, is a staunch advocate for multilateralism against rising nationalism, recently emphasizing the critical value of democracy, warning against its erosion by stating, “Where this suffers setbacks, a Hitler appears.”
Economically, the ties are robust and growing. Brazil is Germany’s most crucial trading partner in South America, with a projected trade volume of 20 billion euros in 2024, including 13 billion euros in German exports. Germany, in turn, eyes Brazil’s rich reserves of raw materials, such as rare earths and the scarce niobium, vital for solar cell production, importing three billion euros worth in 2024. Furthermore, 1300 German-capitalized companies contribute significantly, accounting for ten percent of Brazil’s industrial value creation. Lula’s ambitious multi-billion-euro program to revitalize Brazilian industry presents further opportunities for German investment and collaboration. Lula also explicitly stated Brazil’s capacity to assist the EU in reducing energy costs and transitioning to renewable energy sources.
The provisional entry into force of the Mercosur agreement in less than two weeks is set to establish a free trade zone encompassing 715 million people and 20 percent of global economic output. This agreement represents a crucial ray of hope for export-driven Germany amidst a global landscape marked by US protectionism, China’s trade-based power politics, and sanctions against Russia. Chancellor Merz thus has every reason to extend the red carpet to President Lula. Moreover, the environmental dimension of their partnership is critical. While their last meeting in Belém saw Merz’s ambiguous stance on Lula’s Amazon rainforest protection fund and a controversial remark about local conditions, Lula’s presidency has seen a reduction in deforestation. Strengthening this partnership, perhaps through increased German contributions to the fund, and discussions at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, holds immense potential for global climate protection, emphasizing that tropical rainforests either protect or exacerbate climate change depending on their preservation.
