Baden-Württemberg faces an unprecedented crisis, with the looming threat of up to 66,000 job losses in its vital automotive industry by 2030. The once-proud ‘Autoland,’ home to Daimler, Porsche, and Bosch, is grappling with a profound transformation reminiscent of Detroit’s decline. This economic turmoil has placed the future of the state’s core sector at the forefront of the upcoming Landtagswahl, turning the battle for economic survival into a fierce contest for political leadership and voter trust. Hundreds of thousands are anxious about their future, as the state grapples with finding a viable path out of this deep-seated dilemma.
At the heart of this electoral battle are the leading candidates, Manuel Hagel of the CDU and Cem Özdemir of the Greens. Hagel, whose party currently leads the polls, emphasizes economic revitalization through ‘special economic zones’ for growth sectors like AI and robotics, promising reduced regulations and strong support for the traditional combustion engine. Özdemir, aiming to appeal to businesses, proposes abolishing reporting obligations for municipalities and SMEs to boost productivity and development, while championing e-mobility. Both candidates agree on the necessity of Baden-Württemberg remaining a leading automotive hub, promising to secure investments, safeguard jobs, and reduce bureaucracy, all while asserting themselves as the rightful heirs to outgoing Minister President Winfried Kretschmann’s pragmatic legacy.
The depth of the crisis is echoed by key stakeholders. The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) warns of societal breakdown if urgent action isn’t taken, demanding increased vocational training, an industrial electricity price, and a €500 million annual future fund for SMEs. While top auto executives valued Kretschmann’s pragmatic approach, they acknowledge that most critical decisions for multinational corporations are made far beyond Stuttgart, in capitals like Berlin, Brussels, Washington, and Peking. This reality is openly addressed by Cem Özdemir, who uniquely highlights the inherent limitations of the Minister President’s office in influencing global economic tides, contrasting with the more expansive promises often heard on the campaign trail.
Adding another layer to this complex political landscape is the surging AfD, which has garnered significant support from concerned industrial workers and small business owners. Their ‘Ministerpräsident-Kandidat’ Markus Frohnmaier makes bold, albeit largely unrealistic, promises of international diplomatic trips to revive economic ties within the first 100 days. Despite their polling strength, the AfD’s isolation means they are highly unlikely to be part of any coalition government, sparing their economic proposals from a real-world feasibility test. Ultimately, the election is not just about policy but about identity for a state and a city like Stuttgart, which has thrived for decades on assembling expensive cars. As the combustion engine era wanes, Baden-Württemberg grapples with redefining its economic self-understanding and securing its prosperity.
